DfT Research: Traffic in England and Wales could increase by 54% by 2025
The Department for Transport (DfT) has released its latest projections of road traffic, congestion, and emissions for England and Wales. These projections are long-term, strategic predictions of future road travel demand under various possible scenarios.
The National Road Traffic Projections 2022 study reveals that traffic is expected to grow significantly. Road traffic in England and Wales could potentially increase by as much as 54% between 2025 and 2060.
The most conservative estimate suggests an 8% rise.
However, despite a massive, predicted increase in traffic on the roads, emissions are projected to fall by as much as 98%! This clearly highlights the growing trend of motorists moving towards greener vehicles.
The Research
The study’s projections were made using the DfTs ‘national transport modelling framework’. This framework is based on years of collected data covering different types of travel demand and the types of vehicles used.
This data is combined with a set of 7 different analytical scenarios that help explore variables that can impact demand. These are known as the Common Analytical Scenarios (CAS). These scenarios explore the impact of:
Demographics
Poor economic growth
High economic growth
Regional redistribution
Behavioural change
New technologies
Decarbonisation.
It is important to emphasise that these projections are not definitive predictions of what will happen in the future.
Their goal is to inform and shape strategic policy development, to provide a common and consistent basis against which policy options can be compared, and to advance our understanding of the drivers of travel demand.
The Impact of Covid-19
A large part of the study focused on the impact of Covid-19, as the pandemic had a huge impact on travel patterns.
Perhaps surprisingly, road demand has been affected less than other modes of transport. However, car use, which accounted for around 78% of all traffic in 2019, is still below pre-pandemic levels.
On the other hand, vans and heavy goods vehicle (HGV) traffic are higher than pre-pandemic levels, with July 2022 levels 24% and 15% above February 2020 levels, respectively.
The extent to which these patterns will be sustained long term is unclear. The DfT has made a high-level, informed assumption that in the long term, traffic will return to pre-pandemic levels.
Commenting on the research, Steve Gooding, Director of the RAC Foundation, said:
“There are currently 5.9 million licence holders aged 70 or over in Britain so we know the demand for mobility is there amongst those of a senior age. In the foreseeable future automated vehicles offer the tantalising prospect of independence for the many millions more people who fall into the older age group but for whatever reason – cost, medical impairment – don’t currently drive.
“The big question, is not whether the technology will work, but how it will be made available? If everyone insists on having their own driverless car then traffic volume, and parking pressures, will rise. However, if we are prepared to access these vehicles ‘on demand’ and forego personal ownership then we could have a win-win situation: quieter roads, fewer cars shared by the many, and cheaper transport.”